I love Thanksgiving. Most cultures have a day of gratitude or a harvest festival, and this is ours. I also love cooking. I’m moderately good at it, so when we host Thanksgiving, I tackle the turkey. It brings me great joy, not only because it tastes great, but because it’s hard. Anyone who knows me knows I love hard problems. Just cooking a turkey is easy, but cooking it right is hard.

I’ve gathered decades of empirical evidence on how to cook a turkey from my own attempts and from observing my mother and grandmother. I treat cooking turkey like a critical project, with risk factors, mitigants and - of course - metrics. Metrics are essential to me because I can measure the success of my current cooking effort and improve year over year.

Turkey Cooking Objectives

Let’s define what we want to achieve. A successful Thanksgiving turkey has the following attributes:

• The bird is thoroughly cooked and does not have any undercooked areas.

• The reversal of a raw bird is an overcooked, dry one. It’s a careful balancing act between a raw and dry bird, with little margin for error.

• Tastes good and is flavorful.

• The bird is done cooking within a predictable timeframe (think side dishes. If your ETA is way off in either direction, you can end up with cold sides or a cold bird.)

Tony’s Turkey Golden Rules

• Brining is a personal choice. It’s controversial. Some people swear by a wet brine, a dry brine, or no brine. There’s no one right way - each has pros, cons, and different outcomes. Practice different methods on whole chickens throughout the year to find what works for you. I prefer a wet brine with salt, herbs, and spices.

• Nothing (or very little) in the cavity. It’s tempting to fill the cavity up with stuffing, apples, onions, lemons and garlic. It inhibits airflow and heat while cooking, significantly adding to total cooking time. Achieving a perfectly cooked turkey with a moist breast means you are cooking this thing as fast as possible.

• No basting. Yes, basting helps keep the breast moist, but you’re also opening the oven many times, letting heat out - increasing the cooking time. I posit basting gives the cook diminished returns and can have the unintended consequence of throwing the side dish timing out of whack.

The Most Basic Recipe

Required Tools

• Turkey lacer kit (pins and string)

• Roasting pan

• Food thermometer (a real one, not the pop-up kind)

Ingredients

• Turkey

• Salt

• Herb butter (this is just herbs, like thyme, mixed into butter. Make this in the morning)

Prep Work

• If frozen, make sure the turkey is sufficiently thawed. The ratio is 24 hours in the refrigerator for every 5 pounds.

• Preheat the oven to 325 degrees Fahrenheit.

• Remove the turkey from the packaging or brine bag. Check the cavity and ensure it’s empty.

• Rub salt on the whole turkey, including the cavity. Take it easy on this step if you brined.

• Loosen the skin on the breast and shove herb butter between the skin and meat.

• Melt some of your butter and brush it on.

• Pin the wings under the bird and tie the legs together.

• Determine your cooking time. It’s about 13-15 minutes per pound (at 325F) per the USDA.

• Optional: You can put rosemary, thyme, sage, lemons or apples into the cavity, but take it easy. Just a little bit - you don’t want to inhibit airflow.

• Optional: Calibrate your oven and your kitchen thermometer for a more accurate cooking time range.

Cooking

• Put the turkey in the oven

• About halfway through the cooking time, cover the turkey breast with aluminum foil. This is the only time you will open the oven, other than taking temperature readings. This can be mitigated somewhat with the use of a digital remote thermometer.

• About 10-15 minutes before the cooking time is up, take a temperature reading. I take two; the innermost part of the thigh and the thickest part of the breast. Watch this video for help.

• Take the turkey out when the temperature reads 165 degrees F. Let it rest for 15-20 minutes.

• Carving is a special skill. Here’s great guidance. 

Metrics

Metrics are my favorite part. How do we know we met our objectives? Put another way - what would we directly observe that would tell us Thanksgiving was successful?

Here are some starting metrics:

• Cooking time within the projected range: We want everything to be served warm or hot, so the turkey should be ready +/- 15 minutes within the projected total cooking time. Anything more, in either direction, is a risk factor. Think of the projected cooking time as your forecast. Was your forecast accurate? Were you under or overconfident?

• Raw: This is a binary metric; it either is, or it isn’t. If you cut into the turkey and there are pink areas, something went wrong. Your thermometer is broken, needs calibration, or you took the temperature wrong.

• Is the turkey moist, flavorful, and enjoyable to eat? This is a bit harder because it’s an intangible. We know that intangibles can be measured, so let’s give it a shot. Imagine two families sitting down for Thanksgiving dinner: Family #1 has a dry, gross, overcooked turkey. Family #2 has a moist, perfectly cooked turkey. What differences are we observing between families?

  • % of people that take a second helping. This has to be a range because some people will always get seconds, and others will never, regardless of how dry or moist it is. In my family, everyone is polite and won’t tell me it’s dry during the meal, but if the percentage of second helpings is less than prior observations (generally, equal to or less than 20%), there’s a problem. There’s my first KPI (key performance indicator).

  • % of people that use too much gravy. This also has to be a range because some people drink gravy like its water, and others hate it. Gravy makes dry, tasteless turkey taste better. I know my extended family very well, and if the percentage of people overusing gravy exceeds 40%, it’s too dry. Keep in mind that “too much gravy” is subjective and should be rooted in prior observations.

  • % of kids that won’t eat the food. Children under the age of 10 lack the manners and courteousness of their adult counterparts. It’s a general fact that most kids like poultry (McNuggets, chicken strips, chicken cheesy rice) and a good turkey should, at the very least, get picked at, if not devoured by a child 10 or under. If 50% or more of kids in my house won’t take a second bite, something is wrong.

  • % of leftover turkey that gets turned into soup, or thrown out. Good turkey doesn’t last long. Bad turkey gets turned into soup or thrown out after a few days in the refrigerator. In my house, if 60% or more of leftovers don’t get directly eaten within four days, it wasn’t that good.

  • Bonus: Predictive Key Risk Indicator. In late October, if 50% or more of your household is lobbying for you to “take it easy this year” and “just get Chinese takeout,” your Thanksgiving plan is at risk. In metrics and forecasting, past is prologue. Last year’s turkey didn’t turn out well!

Adjust all of the above thresholds to control for your own familial peculiarities: picky eaters, never/always eat leftovers (regardless of factors), a bias for Chinese takeout, etc.

With these tips, you are more likely to enjoy a delicious and low-risk holiday. Happy Thanksgiving!